Samantha, I think you've synthesized this problem well. You single out Bibi by name, that is important as while he is not the origin of the conflict, he has done nothing to defray it during his many years in office. Israel controls everything about the lives of Palestinians, including the basics of survival in Gaza by controlling the borders, electricity, water, etc. So much could have been done to weaken Hamas from within by showing Palestinians that they could be partners. Instead Bibi's administration has always acted as though Palestine was a problem that needed to go away, and fanned the flames by Balkanizing the West Bank with settlements. They basically guaranteed that Hamas would explode.
Yes, Brad, I agree with this so much. I feel strongly that we should be clear bout who bears responsibility here, and it's not all Israelis...it's a specific subset of people in power. The Israelis killed and brutalized on October 7 in no way deserved what happened to them--nobody deserves that--but it was, in a very sad and twisted way, the logical conclusion of many years of terrible policies that allowed Hamas to flourish. Hamas and their ideology won't be destroyed militarily. The only way is to, as you say, show Palestinians that they can be partners, and allow them basic human dignity. The anger must be addressed at its source.
But keep in mind that the Gazans are also victims of their democratically elected leadership in a one man, one vote, once election political system.
Imagine if the $11 billion siphoned off by the top three Gazan leaders was spent instead on infrastructure and civil society in Gaza. And if the top three siphoned off that much, then the corruption goes far down the hierarchy, because you can’t stay at the top of the corruption pyramid without buying off your minions. And don’t forget about building miles of tunnels instead of septic systems, water systems, and parks.
Also, it’s quite handy to have a whipping boy in the neighborhood to divert attention away from your own corruption and misrule by whipping up hatred against those others guys.
I think there’s some validity to this point. On the other hand, Israel has far more control over Gaza than Hamas does, and Gazans don’t get to vote in Israel’s elections. Also, Gaza hasn’t had an election since 2006. I’m not sure you can fairly call a group that has clung to power for 18 years sans election “democratically elected,” and given how young a population it is, the average Gazan wasn’t even alive in 2006, let alone of voting age.
My tongue was in firmly in my cheek when I said “democratically elected leadership in a one man, one vote, once political system.” I’ve lived or worked in enough countries where Big Men hung onto power until they died of old age to know exactly what happens.
My beloved Zimbabwe, for example, endured Bob Mugabe for thirty seven years, after he was “elected” in 1980 through violence and intimidation. (My wife and I were once forced to listen to a three hour political harangue under a glorious African summer sun by two of Mugabe campaign thugs who described in lurid detail what would happen if their boss wasn’t re-elected). Britain and the United States were well aware of what happened, but were so eager to get rid of the Rhodesia problem that they turned a blind eye. When Mugabe was finally forced out, he was replaced by one of his crony comrades, but not before he left a massive fortune to his wife, “Gucci Grace,” whom he impregnated while his first wife Sally was dying from cancer (IIRC).
The same song, different verse applies to Yassar Arafat, who was blessed with millions and millions of dollars for his selfless service to the Palestinians, and it applies to the current current Palestinian leadership in both Gaza and the West Bank. Probably the only difference between Mugabe (and his ilk in Africa) and the crooks who fleece Palestinians is that Mugabe had the straw man of colonialism to justify his predations and the Big Palestinian Men are doing the Lord’s work. Whatever the reason, the people suffer.
In Zimbabwe, male life expectancy went from the mid-50 year range, with a upward trend at the end of the white settlers’ regime to the mid-30 year range after 20 years under Mugabe, all according to freely available World Bank data. I suspect the Palestinians have experienced similar declines.
Fair! It can be tough to read sarcasm on the internet 🫠 I think you're hitting an important point about kleptocrats and leaders with perverse incentives. I have a whole rant on this and touched on it in my response to Mikey, but I absolutely think Hamas sees themselves as benefitting from civilian deaths because they make Israel look bad and are contributing to anti-Israel sentiment. In Hamas' minds, this war is a massive moral victory, and the PR only gets better the more civilians die by Israel's hand. It's a disgusting, viscous cycle.
And mid-30s is a truly horrifying life expectancy...!
Somehow we rationalize these “liberation monsters” because “that’s just the way THOSE people are.” My God, I despise that attitude. I’ve spent too many years in very close proximity to the little people who suffer from these bastards. They are good, decent people who want nothing more than what the rest of us want: a peaceful, satisfying life doing meaningful work, and a chance for a better life for their children.
But as P.J. O’Rourke once noted, without that hope for a better future, it’s much more fun to run around in a jungle with an AK47 than it is to guide a plow all day behind a water buffalo in a rice paddy.
There, I said it. Without hope, testosterone takes over and old testosterone is the cruelest. I can say these things now that I don’t represent a Good and Noble organization out to save the world or am a diplomat upon whose every carefully chosen word rests war or peace.
Thank you for your wonderfully articulated thoughts, Sam. They are what I have been thinking as well.
When I read about the attack from Iran, I actually thought about you in Bulgaria, and like your mother was glad that you were not in Jordan. (How will you return if the airspace is closed and Israel attacks Iran in turn?) The wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine are so unjustified, created by old men hungry for power and religion run amok. In turn, so many innocent men, women and children have died while thousands more have been maimed, physically, psychologically and emotionally.
Considering your experience and training, do you have any suggestions for a way forward?
Sam, this was wonderful. Thank you for holding up various aspects of the conflict and untangling and explaining them. I am definitely included as one of the people in the "Many of you have been angry for months now" camp. I am hopeful that I'm hearing more and more people speak out. I'm also devastated at the loss of life and at the continuing military support (weapons after weapons shipment, constantly making its way from America to Israel.)
Anyone who actually wants to solve this, rather than just getting rid of the Palestinians (by either killing them in increasingly brutal ways or ethnically cleansing them from their occupied lands in both Gaza and the West Bank) knows that the only way forward is political, not military. Nothing shocks me anymore, and yet, I sit there day in and day out watching Blinken and John Kirby exhibit the most callous disregard for any Palestinian or Lebanese (or Arab at all, frankly) suffering. What self-respecting person would watch their family members killed, their land stolen, their people humiliated again and again, and think, "oh yes, these people have my best interest at heart."
If I may (and you may have already read /watched these) I would recommend the book "The Hundred Years War on Palestine" by Rashid Khalidi, a Palestinian American historian, and for you to look up and read the works of Mohamed El Kurd, a young Palestinian Journalist and Poet in East Jerusalem whose family home in Sheikh Jarrah was essentially colonized by Americans who decided it was their home, and of course, the state of Israel has stood with the Americans in this travesty. He did a podcast interview with Lex Freidman in the summer of 2023 that you can find on any podcast app. It's worth listening to.
💕💕💕 I agree with you one million percent that the solution must be political and diplomatic, Noha. Military action will only continue an already extremely viscious cycle. The road to a political solution will be incredibly difficult, but "it's hard" isn't an excuse not to pursue it. This is one of the defining moral issues of our time; we can't throw up our hands and refuse to try.
I have been hearing about "The Hundred Years War on Palestine" a lot lately! It's going on my list as I start taking deeper dives into the history of the region. Thanks for the suggestion!
Sam, breath of relief you're not in the middle of this conflict. I share with you the sentiment of wanting to bear witness to the madness... yet hold an even fiercer desire for this world to be led by wise elders rather than petulant, maniacal, sociopathic specimens of Homo sapiens. "Thinking man" indeed!
The painful irony is that with the qualities I just listed above, come, part and parcel, the desire to rule, dominate, destroy, and extract, and so that is the path they naturally follow. It is, by its very nature, violent and virulent. A path of peace does not, inherently, carve such devastation into the soul of a people. It seeks neither competition nor domination, and so, one might think, it is condemned to be perpetually subjugated by those forces that do. And yet, of course, that is not what we should be seeking. "Peace" is not possible given our nature and our natural laws. What is possible, and what we should seek, demand, and take as ours, is balance. A middle way that recognizes the power of cultural beliefs and stories, yet demands of all parties involved, to be aware of and respect one another. Still a tall order these days!
Well said, Birgitte. One of the greatest tragedies of the human condition is that positions of power attract the exact people that should never, ever hold them.
Your anger, frustration, sadness and overwhelm are physically palpable in your writing. Perhaps some betrayal, too? My heart breaks for what is going on in the Mideast. Thank you for putting into words what so many of us feel.
Thank you for this kind comment, Cynthia ❤️ and yes, I think there are some feelings of betrayal buried here--I had hoped that the U.S. would be able to play a net positive role in this awful situation and contribute to brokering a negotiated peace. I'm heartbroken to have been wrong.
As someone said, it’s a region of the world that produces more history than can be consumed locally.
If we could do a little editing on some of our holy books, especially the parts about killing one another because we don’t like the other guy’s holy books, and replace those parts with stories about forgiveness and grace, which means canceling our right to revenge against the other guys and treating them as we would hope they treat us, then maybe things could change.
You may call me a dreamer, but I’m not the only one. . .
It’s a difficult region to write or even think about because of all the history. It’s incredibly difficult to find the origins of problems because there was always something else that happened first…arguments quickly become circular.
To your point re: holy books, this is why I personally am not a fan of organized religion. I think there are plenty of people of faith who are able to take the good parts and leave the bad/violent—and I admire the heck out of those people—but a lot simply aren’t.
Thanks for expressing your thoughts even if it is hard to express them at this time, Sam. And I agree these wars should’ve be prevented from happening much earlier. While I don’t want to make this about me (everyone should focus on the innocent Palestinian, Lebanese, and Israeli civilians that are being swept up into these wars), when the attacks of October 7th happened along with the war in Gaza, it came at the worst time mentally for me as my personal life was spiralling out of control. Since then my own mental health has somewhat improved, yet the continuing cycle of depressing news in the Middle East makes it harder for me to keep sane. I’m keeping you, Nick, Boo, and everyone in the Middle East (excluding the selfish and self interested leaders and politicians) in my prayers at this time. P.S. I hope you guys get to see Boo real soon❤️❤️❤️
I totally understand where you’re coming from, Fahim—I struggle with trying to write about this in a way where I’m not centering myself over others who are actually in harm’s way. But I think we all have a right to feel our feelings, even if someone out there has it worse than us. And I think there’s no shame in turning off the news for a while if it’s damaging your mental health. I’m so glad you are doing better. ❤️
It's all about the money. War is immensely lucrative. Look at Lockheed's etc. stock -- I saw several headlines that stated that defense stocks jumped after Iran's attack. Our policy makers either profit because they own stocks, or they're unable to push back because money is so powerful. How utterly despicable.
What a stressful, anxiety filled time. I am glad you are in Bulgaria, out of the way of the bombardments. I have a friend currently back in Ukraine taking care of her elderly mother, and that fighting sometimes is close to where they are. I pray cooler heads prevail and the death and destruction stops. Stay safe.
Our leaders are beginning the end of WW3 after which every Islamist asshole who threatens a Jew anywhere on earth will be dead.
That's where the West's real leaders are, defending the values that built modernity from medieval Islamist scum.
Since you asked.
I've briefly perused your Islamist propaganda and cannot tell if you're stupid or being paid to write nonsense. Where, for example, would ANYONE get the bizarre idea that Israel controlled Gaza, instead of Hamas?
Hi Sam, I’m going to try and do something unprecedented in the history of the internet and see if I can take up a contrary position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a polite and respectful manner.
I one hundred percent share your horror at the brutality of this war and its resultant impact on civilian populations, across the whole region. However, I disagree with you on the emphasis in blame.
Israel did not start this war, Hamas did, and Hezbollah has not stopped firing rockets into northern Israel since October 8th last year, displacing 60,000 people. There’s still over a hundred hostages (dead and alive) still held by Hamas. Please don’t mistake me, I do not think Israel blameless. Their tactics in Gaza, which are clearly aimed at minimising the loss of Israeli combatants at the cost of more Palestinian dead, has resulted in more civilian deaths than perhaps other military strategies might have. It’s been heartbreaking to see those images come out of Gaza, just as it was heartbreaking to see the images of the attacks on October 7th. And of course there’s decades and decades worth of horrific violence and death from both sides; neither side is anywhere close to being blameless.
However, Hamas deliberately uses their own civilians as human shields. Hamas are happier with every extra civilian death on their own side. They hide in their tunnels underneath the most vulnerable parts of the Palestinian civilian population for exactly the reason that Israel will have to inflict civilian casualties to get to them. How does one fight something like that?
Meanwhile, Hezbollah seem intent on opening up another front to the chaos on Israel’s northern frontier. What is Israel supposed to do in regards to that northern front? Ignore it? I say this with great sadness, but I fear any ceasefire now only drags out this seemingly eternal conflict ever further. Hamas and Hezbollah would only come again when they regather their strength. I’m not certain Israel’s tactics are actually the most effective means of reaching their objective, particularly in Gaza, but their objective — the complete destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah — seems the only way to end the conflict once and for all.
In fact, I’d actually go a bit further than that. All the chaos in the region is underwritten by Iran; the only way the region stabilises and Israel and Palestine could ever reach a lasting peace is if they cut off the source and attack the heart of this jihadist-Hydra in Iran.
Unfortunately, Israel isn’t in a position to fight Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran all at once — not without the backing of the US, which, with its great power competition with Russia and China is not in a position to do so, even if there was domestic appetite for another Middle Eastern war, which I sincerely doubt.
If the US did as you called for and forced a lasting ceasefire upon Israel, perhaps the immediate death and destruction would stop, but it wouldn’t end. Hamas and Hezbollah, with the help of Iran, would soon build up their strength again. And the cycle would start anew, to the cost of the civilians of Palestine, Lebanon, and Israel. At the risk of sounding incredibly callous, I fear that it has to get worse before it has a chance of ever getting better.
Having said that, I don’t actually see this war getting to its necessary end, because the US and international community would stop it before it ever got that far, so I hold out no hope that this cycle of violence ends anytime soon.
Hey Mikey—I respect and appreciate your respectful disagreement! This is quite a long comment, but I’m going to attempt to address it all. The bottom line is I think we may have to agree to disagree here.
To be clear, I don’t think Israel is to blame for starting this war—at least not directly—but I do think they are mostly to blame for escalating it.
The fact that Hamas uses civilians as human shields is absolutely reprehensible, and I agree with you that they are probably happy to see civilian deaths, but that is not an excuse for Israel to kill those “human shields.” They have a responsibility, under international law, to protect civilian lives; they claim to be doing this, but when you look at the sheer number of deaths, that claim stretches credulity. So the answer to your question, “how do you fight something like that” is, quite frankly, no one’s problem to solve but Israel’s. If they want to achieve a specific military effect, they need to do it within the bounds of international law and the law of armed conflict. I would actually suggest that they could have evacuated civilians into Israel proper, or to the West Bank, rather than leave kettled in in Gaza, if they wanted to conduct air raids to destroy tunnels below. But I think we all know Israel would never be willing to let Gazans in under these circumstances.
And I respectfully disagree that what Hezbollah has been doing amounts to opening up the northern front—Israel and Hezbollah exchange fire all the time, and have done so for many years. Hezbollah aren’t the ones invading Israel. Plus, it benefits Bibi politically to keep the war going…I think he sees the writing on the wall that the Gaza war will have to end eventually, and Israelis are calling for snap elections as soon as hostilities end, so better find a new distraction. Finally, the scale is different; 60,000 Israelis are displaced, and that is fucking awful, but one million people in Lebanon have been displaced because of Israeli raids, which is an order of magnitude worse. We need to place the same value on the lives of Lebanese and Palestinian civilians as we do on those of Israeli civilians.
I think it’s hyperbole to say “all the chaos in the region is underwritten by Iran”; what about Sunni extremists? What about extremist Israeli settlers, in particular? Did Iran have a role in the Arab Spring? Iran literally fought ISIS because it threatened their interests. There is plenty of chaos to go around that has little to do with Iran, and getting rid of the extremist regime in Iran wouldn’t solve it all. It’s wouldn’t be honest for us to place all the blame on Iran for what has unfolded post October 7. As I said, Iran’s actions deserve to be condemned. But Iran didn’t force Israel to create what is effectively an apartheid state that sowed the seeds for Hamas to come into existence. Hamas would exist with or without Iran. There is also no evidence that Iran directed October 7.
All that said, I suppose the real reason I’m placing the focus on Israel vice Iran here is because Israel is supposed to be a U.S. ally, and there was a time when they were upheld as a rare Middle Eastern democracy. They are about to drag us into a regional war that is not in our interests, and none of this benefits us at all. That is not how a true ally behaves.
Definitely agree with you on the point that just because Hamas use their civilians as human shields it doesn’t mean that Israel has no responsibility to protect civilian casualties, and also accept that their strategies seem to have violated that principle. It’s also worth mentioning at this point that Hamas was of course deliberately and covertly permitted to reach its current position of power in the Gaza strip by Bibi’s governments with the aim of making a two-state solution impossible. Israel, and particularly Netanyahu, has a huge amount of responsibility for making the bed it now finds itself in. However, in light of what to do now, in the context of all of those mistakes and atrocities, I don’t see how forcing a ceasefire until Hamas is totally destroyed does anything but kick the can down the road. I like your suggestion of evacuating all of the civilian population out of the strip while the IDF destroys the tunnel system, despite the inevitable difficulties in logistics and the danger of combatants smuggling themselves in with the civilian population. It certainly would have been a more humane strategy, albeit not one that Bibi himself would ever have considered I bet. A push for a different, more humane strategy like that one would be a better option over a ceasefire. Don’t think we need to restrict ourselves to ceasefire or status quo as our only two options.
I definitely would argue that we need to place the same value on Lebanese and Palestinian lives as Israelis! But, as with Gaza, I fear the idea of forcing a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah only kicks the can down the road. I think sometimes we in the West make the mistake of thinking jihadists can be reasoned with, that we can rationalise their actions with appeals to politics or socioeconomic conditions, where in actual fact they genuinely believe they are fighting a righteous cosmic war, where death in combat is the highest ideal that one can strive for. If you allow organisations like Hamas and Hezbollah to continue to exist they will never stop fighting, and the cycle of violence continues forever. That’s not to say that Israel or the US or Britain isn’t in some ways responsible for this current mess, because they are! It’s just that the way to end the cycle is with the removal of the jihadists from the equation. The fact that so many innocents are killed or injured in the process is of course an abomination. But I just can’t see any other way.
If there was a magic button we could push where everyone would put down their guns and stop fighting, then of course we would push it. But I genuinely don’t see a way this ends until Israel and/or the US deal all of these groups a fatal blow, because they will never stop. I know that will continue the bloodshed in the short term, and it puts me in the awful position of sounding like a utilitarian trying to justify some death here to prevent more deaths over there, but I don’t see any other way this ends.
Totally accept your point that my comment on Iran was an oversimplification, but if they ceased to sponsor militias all over the region, it would all get an order of magnitude easier. Without their support, Hamas would not nearly be as potent a force as they are, even if they weren’t directly involved in the planning of Oct 7th.
As for the point on allies, I can understand your position in not wanting your country to get dragged into it. As you say the truth is that the US has very little to gain from getting involved, and with the continued acceleration of solar soon the region will have no geopolitical significance at all. I suppose at this point we get into discussions about the moral responsibility of America’s role as the world’s policeman, which is a slightly different topic, and this comment is already obnoxiously long, so perhaps it’s best if I stop before getting into that!
I appreciate your point that a ceasefire only kicks the can down the road—it’s in no way a long term solution. But I do think buying time could still be worth it, if only to let Gaza rebuild civilian infrastructure. I think the issue with the strategy of attempting to completely eliminate terrorists is that in doing so, you inevitably create more terrorists. I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that many more Gazans would be happy to join Hamas today than would have before October 7 of last year because of what they’ve experienced. (I say all this, and to be clear, I shed absolutely no tears for Hamas or Hezbollah militants here—they played a stupid game and won a stupid prize. It’s the civilians who are collateral damage that I worry about.)
And oof yeah, the world policeman argument is a tough one…to be honest with you, I’m still not entirely sure what I think on that score. There are massive pros and cons on either side.
I think all non-Muslims would like to see "a world where the stated foreign policy goals of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas did not include Israel’s total destruction". Muslims in Egypt tell me that after they've taken back Jerusalem and Palestine, and restored the Islamic Caliphate that was defeated in 1918, they will take back Al-Andalus. After that, the goal is to subjugate all of the Infidel West.
I lived in Egypt for two years and never heard anything anywhere near this unhinged. But I suppose there are crazy people everywhere. (I also think there are plenty of Muslims who would like to live in a world where violent extremists aren’t trying to destroy Israel.)
If you have studied Islam in depth you would know its not at all "unhinged", especially as many Islamic groups today say openly that it is their goal, and they include it in their charter. Islam has the concept of "Dar al-Harb vs Dar al-Islam" which means House of War vs House of Islam. Islam is considered to be in a perpetual state of war with the non-Muslim world.
Quran 2:191 is also relevant: "Kill them wherever you come upon them and drive them out of the places from which they have driven you out." The idea is that all places which Islam ruled over and then lost, or from where the Muslims were driven out from, must be retaken. Devout Muslims believe it is their obligation to struggle (practice jihad) until all of these places are back under control of Islam, and the Jews and Christians are humbled, subdued, subjugated, as in Quran 9:29.
Of course, not all Muslim's interpret these verses literally, or they will say there is a different context, or use some other reason to not feel obligated by them, but a very large percentage of Muslims DO believe that following them is the only certain chance they have of going to Paradise, and not hellfire, when they die.
“Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are convinced that the End of Days has come. They believe the Shia messiah known as the ‘Twelfth Imam’ or the ‘Mahdi’ will appear soon to establish a global Islamic kingdom known as the caliphate. What’s more, they believe the way to hasten the coming of the Twelfth Imam is to annihilate Israel (which they call the ‘Little Satan’), and the United States (which they call the ‘Great Satan’).” [Joel C. Rosenberg, ‘Why Iran’s Top Leaders Believe That the End of Days Has Come‘, 7 Nov. 2011]
Exactly. Both the Sunnis and the Shias deem the destruction of Israel to be the first step to achieving their ideological Islamic goal. Israel is fighting on the front line for the rest of the non-Muslim world.
I agree that most Muslims are barely following Islam and will happily admit in private that they are 'cultural' Muslims only. They are born into Islam. In most countries where Sharia is implemented (such as Egypt) they can never officially convert out of Islam. However, when 'extremist' Muslims quote the Quran and other Islamic texts to back up why they do what they do, you have to know that it is Islam itself that is extreme. I'm happy to be proven wrong but it seems quite clear that the overarching goal of Islam is to dominate the world. This is according to the scriptures, and according to those Muslims who follow the scriptures and the example of their prophet. Whereas, if a Christian is 'extreme', he's going to be more like a peace-loving hippie who 'turns the other cheek' and 'loves his enemies'. You couldn't say that about fundamentalist 'extreme' Muslims. I also used to defend Islam until I studied the scriptures in depth and lived where Muslims grew to trust me and opened up about what they truly believe.
Maybe along with your “studies” you could gain understanding. As it stands, you reach all the wrong conclusions because you are incapable of processing reality.
Or maybe you are just so radically leftist that stupidity has replaced every shred of reason that once dwelt within you.
This is a proxy war with Russia… US trying to save face with very likely defeat in Ukraine and pivoting to Israel-Iran on another front. Military industrial complex at work.
Samantha, I think you've synthesized this problem well. You single out Bibi by name, that is important as while he is not the origin of the conflict, he has done nothing to defray it during his many years in office. Israel controls everything about the lives of Palestinians, including the basics of survival in Gaza by controlling the borders, electricity, water, etc. So much could have been done to weaken Hamas from within by showing Palestinians that they could be partners. Instead Bibi's administration has always acted as though Palestine was a problem that needed to go away, and fanned the flames by Balkanizing the West Bank with settlements. They basically guaranteed that Hamas would explode.
Yes, Brad, I agree with this so much. I feel strongly that we should be clear bout who bears responsibility here, and it's not all Israelis...it's a specific subset of people in power. The Israelis killed and brutalized on October 7 in no way deserved what happened to them--nobody deserves that--but it was, in a very sad and twisted way, the logical conclusion of many years of terrible policies that allowed Hamas to flourish. Hamas and their ideology won't be destroyed militarily. The only way is to, as you say, show Palestinians that they can be partners, and allow them basic human dignity. The anger must be addressed at its source.
But keep in mind that the Gazans are also victims of their democratically elected leadership in a one man, one vote, once election political system.
Imagine if the $11 billion siphoned off by the top three Gazan leaders was spent instead on infrastructure and civil society in Gaza. And if the top three siphoned off that much, then the corruption goes far down the hierarchy, because you can’t stay at the top of the corruption pyramid without buying off your minions. And don’t forget about building miles of tunnels instead of septic systems, water systems, and parks.
Also, it’s quite handy to have a whipping boy in the neighborhood to divert attention away from your own corruption and misrule by whipping up hatred against those others guys.
I think there’s some validity to this point. On the other hand, Israel has far more control over Gaza than Hamas does, and Gazans don’t get to vote in Israel’s elections. Also, Gaza hasn’t had an election since 2006. I’m not sure you can fairly call a group that has clung to power for 18 years sans election “democratically elected,” and given how young a population it is, the average Gazan wasn’t even alive in 2006, let alone of voting age.
My tongue was in firmly in my cheek when I said “democratically elected leadership in a one man, one vote, once political system.” I’ve lived or worked in enough countries where Big Men hung onto power until they died of old age to know exactly what happens.
My beloved Zimbabwe, for example, endured Bob Mugabe for thirty seven years, after he was “elected” in 1980 through violence and intimidation. (My wife and I were once forced to listen to a three hour political harangue under a glorious African summer sun by two of Mugabe campaign thugs who described in lurid detail what would happen if their boss wasn’t re-elected). Britain and the United States were well aware of what happened, but were so eager to get rid of the Rhodesia problem that they turned a blind eye. When Mugabe was finally forced out, he was replaced by one of his crony comrades, but not before he left a massive fortune to his wife, “Gucci Grace,” whom he impregnated while his first wife Sally was dying from cancer (IIRC).
The same song, different verse applies to Yassar Arafat, who was blessed with millions and millions of dollars for his selfless service to the Palestinians, and it applies to the current current Palestinian leadership in both Gaza and the West Bank. Probably the only difference between Mugabe (and his ilk in Africa) and the crooks who fleece Palestinians is that Mugabe had the straw man of colonialism to justify his predations and the Big Palestinian Men are doing the Lord’s work. Whatever the reason, the people suffer.
In Zimbabwe, male life expectancy went from the mid-50 year range, with a upward trend at the end of the white settlers’ regime to the mid-30 year range after 20 years under Mugabe, all according to freely available World Bank data. I suspect the Palestinians have experienced similar declines.
As they say, the blessings of liberty. . .
Fair! It can be tough to read sarcasm on the internet 🫠 I think you're hitting an important point about kleptocrats and leaders with perverse incentives. I have a whole rant on this and touched on it in my response to Mikey, but I absolutely think Hamas sees themselves as benefitting from civilian deaths because they make Israel look bad and are contributing to anti-Israel sentiment. In Hamas' minds, this war is a massive moral victory, and the PR only gets better the more civilians die by Israel's hand. It's a disgusting, viscous cycle.
And mid-30s is a truly horrifying life expectancy...!
Somehow we rationalize these “liberation monsters” because “that’s just the way THOSE people are.” My God, I despise that attitude. I’ve spent too many years in very close proximity to the little people who suffer from these bastards. They are good, decent people who want nothing more than what the rest of us want: a peaceful, satisfying life doing meaningful work, and a chance for a better life for their children.
But as P.J. O’Rourke once noted, without that hope for a better future, it’s much more fun to run around in a jungle with an AK47 than it is to guide a plow all day behind a water buffalo in a rice paddy.
There, I said it. Without hope, testosterone takes over and old testosterone is the cruelest. I can say these things now that I don’t represent a Good and Noble organization out to save the world or am a diplomat upon whose every carefully chosen word rests war or peace.
Thank you for your wonderfully articulated thoughts, Sam. They are what I have been thinking as well.
When I read about the attack from Iran, I actually thought about you in Bulgaria, and like your mother was glad that you were not in Jordan. (How will you return if the airspace is closed and Israel attacks Iran in turn?) The wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine are so unjustified, created by old men hungry for power and religion run amok. In turn, so many innocent men, women and children have died while thousands more have been maimed, physically, psychologically and emotionally.
Considering your experience and training, do you have any suggestions for a way forward?
Thank you, Clarice ❤️ I do actually have thoughts on a way forward, and plan to publish more on that soon! Stay tuned!
Thinking of you, this sucks.
Sam, this was wonderful. Thank you for holding up various aspects of the conflict and untangling and explaining them. I am definitely included as one of the people in the "Many of you have been angry for months now" camp. I am hopeful that I'm hearing more and more people speak out. I'm also devastated at the loss of life and at the continuing military support (weapons after weapons shipment, constantly making its way from America to Israel.)
Anyone who actually wants to solve this, rather than just getting rid of the Palestinians (by either killing them in increasingly brutal ways or ethnically cleansing them from their occupied lands in both Gaza and the West Bank) knows that the only way forward is political, not military. Nothing shocks me anymore, and yet, I sit there day in and day out watching Blinken and John Kirby exhibit the most callous disregard for any Palestinian or Lebanese (or Arab at all, frankly) suffering. What self-respecting person would watch their family members killed, their land stolen, their people humiliated again and again, and think, "oh yes, these people have my best interest at heart."
If I may (and you may have already read /watched these) I would recommend the book "The Hundred Years War on Palestine" by Rashid Khalidi, a Palestinian American historian, and for you to look up and read the works of Mohamed El Kurd, a young Palestinian Journalist and Poet in East Jerusalem whose family home in Sheikh Jarrah was essentially colonized by Americans who decided it was their home, and of course, the state of Israel has stood with the Americans in this travesty. He did a podcast interview with Lex Freidman in the summer of 2023 that you can find on any podcast app. It's worth listening to.
💕💕💕 I agree with you one million percent that the solution must be political and diplomatic, Noha. Military action will only continue an already extremely viscious cycle. The road to a political solution will be incredibly difficult, but "it's hard" isn't an excuse not to pursue it. This is one of the defining moral issues of our time; we can't throw up our hands and refuse to try.
I have been hearing about "The Hundred Years War on Palestine" a lot lately! It's going on my list as I start taking deeper dives into the history of the region. Thanks for the suggestion!
Can’t wait to chat about it more with you down the line.
Sam, breath of relief you're not in the middle of this conflict. I share with you the sentiment of wanting to bear witness to the madness... yet hold an even fiercer desire for this world to be led by wise elders rather than petulant, maniacal, sociopathic specimens of Homo sapiens. "Thinking man" indeed!
The painful irony is that with the qualities I just listed above, come, part and parcel, the desire to rule, dominate, destroy, and extract, and so that is the path they naturally follow. It is, by its very nature, violent and virulent. A path of peace does not, inherently, carve such devastation into the soul of a people. It seeks neither competition nor domination, and so, one might think, it is condemned to be perpetually subjugated by those forces that do. And yet, of course, that is not what we should be seeking. "Peace" is not possible given our nature and our natural laws. What is possible, and what we should seek, demand, and take as ours, is balance. A middle way that recognizes the power of cultural beliefs and stories, yet demands of all parties involved, to be aware of and respect one another. Still a tall order these days!
We must all be feeling and thinking and holding the same spaces. I just wrote about how breath-starved our world is... https://themuse.substack.com/p/breathless
Well said, Birgitte. One of the greatest tragedies of the human condition is that positions of power attract the exact people that should never, ever hold them.
Your anger, frustration, sadness and overwhelm are physically palpable in your writing. Perhaps some betrayal, too? My heart breaks for what is going on in the Mideast. Thank you for putting into words what so many of us feel.
Thank you for this kind comment, Cynthia ❤️ and yes, I think there are some feelings of betrayal buried here--I had hoped that the U.S. would be able to play a net positive role in this awful situation and contribute to brokering a negotiated peace. I'm heartbroken to have been wrong.
As someone said, it’s a region of the world that produces more history than can be consumed locally.
If we could do a little editing on some of our holy books, especially the parts about killing one another because we don’t like the other guy’s holy books, and replace those parts with stories about forgiveness and grace, which means canceling our right to revenge against the other guys and treating them as we would hope they treat us, then maybe things could change.
You may call me a dreamer, but I’m not the only one. . .
It’s a difficult region to write or even think about because of all the history. It’s incredibly difficult to find the origins of problems because there was always something else that happened first…arguments quickly become circular.
To your point re: holy books, this is why I personally am not a fan of organized religion. I think there are plenty of people of faith who are able to take the good parts and leave the bad/violent—and I admire the heck out of those people—but a lot simply aren’t.
Thanks for expressing your thoughts even if it is hard to express them at this time, Sam. And I agree these wars should’ve be prevented from happening much earlier. While I don’t want to make this about me (everyone should focus on the innocent Palestinian, Lebanese, and Israeli civilians that are being swept up into these wars), when the attacks of October 7th happened along with the war in Gaza, it came at the worst time mentally for me as my personal life was spiralling out of control. Since then my own mental health has somewhat improved, yet the continuing cycle of depressing news in the Middle East makes it harder for me to keep sane. I’m keeping you, Nick, Boo, and everyone in the Middle East (excluding the selfish and self interested leaders and politicians) in my prayers at this time. P.S. I hope you guys get to see Boo real soon❤️❤️❤️
I totally understand where you’re coming from, Fahim—I struggle with trying to write about this in a way where I’m not centering myself over others who are actually in harm’s way. But I think we all have a right to feel our feelings, even if someone out there has it worse than us. And I think there’s no shame in turning off the news for a while if it’s damaging your mental health. I’m so glad you are doing better. ❤️
It's all about the money. War is immensely lucrative. Look at Lockheed's etc. stock -- I saw several headlines that stated that defense stocks jumped after Iran's attack. Our policy makers either profit because they own stocks, or they're unable to push back because money is so powerful. How utterly despicable.
I think this is, unfortunately, quite true. We need better ethics rules for our politicians.
What a stressful, anxiety filled time. I am glad you are in Bulgaria, out of the way of the bombardments. I have a friend currently back in Ukraine taking care of her elderly mother, and that fighting sometimes is close to where they are. I pray cooler heads prevail and the death and destruction stops. Stay safe.
Thank you! So very true, Sam. Just keep writing! You have a combination of expertise, passion, and writing skill that is rare.
Thank you so much, Patti ❤️ this is what I needed to hear today, I was scared to hit publish on this one!
Our leaders are beginning the end of WW3 after which every Islamist asshole who threatens a Jew anywhere on earth will be dead.
That's where the West's real leaders are, defending the values that built modernity from medieval Islamist scum.
Since you asked.
I've briefly perused your Islamist propaganda and cannot tell if you're stupid or being paid to write nonsense. Where, for example, would ANYONE get the bizarre idea that Israel controlled Gaza, instead of Hamas?
https://christophermessina.substack.com/p/six-month-reminder-i-am-not-here?r=erlb4
How is anything I've written "Islamist propaganda"? Blocked.
Hi Sam, I’m going to try and do something unprecedented in the history of the internet and see if I can take up a contrary position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a polite and respectful manner.
I one hundred percent share your horror at the brutality of this war and its resultant impact on civilian populations, across the whole region. However, I disagree with you on the emphasis in blame.
Israel did not start this war, Hamas did, and Hezbollah has not stopped firing rockets into northern Israel since October 8th last year, displacing 60,000 people. There’s still over a hundred hostages (dead and alive) still held by Hamas. Please don’t mistake me, I do not think Israel blameless. Their tactics in Gaza, which are clearly aimed at minimising the loss of Israeli combatants at the cost of more Palestinian dead, has resulted in more civilian deaths than perhaps other military strategies might have. It’s been heartbreaking to see those images come out of Gaza, just as it was heartbreaking to see the images of the attacks on October 7th. And of course there’s decades and decades worth of horrific violence and death from both sides; neither side is anywhere close to being blameless.
However, Hamas deliberately uses their own civilians as human shields. Hamas are happier with every extra civilian death on their own side. They hide in their tunnels underneath the most vulnerable parts of the Palestinian civilian population for exactly the reason that Israel will have to inflict civilian casualties to get to them. How does one fight something like that?
Meanwhile, Hezbollah seem intent on opening up another front to the chaos on Israel’s northern frontier. What is Israel supposed to do in regards to that northern front? Ignore it? I say this with great sadness, but I fear any ceasefire now only drags out this seemingly eternal conflict ever further. Hamas and Hezbollah would only come again when they regather their strength. I’m not certain Israel’s tactics are actually the most effective means of reaching their objective, particularly in Gaza, but their objective — the complete destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah — seems the only way to end the conflict once and for all.
In fact, I’d actually go a bit further than that. All the chaos in the region is underwritten by Iran; the only way the region stabilises and Israel and Palestine could ever reach a lasting peace is if they cut off the source and attack the heart of this jihadist-Hydra in Iran.
Unfortunately, Israel isn’t in a position to fight Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran all at once — not without the backing of the US, which, with its great power competition with Russia and China is not in a position to do so, even if there was domestic appetite for another Middle Eastern war, which I sincerely doubt.
If the US did as you called for and forced a lasting ceasefire upon Israel, perhaps the immediate death and destruction would stop, but it wouldn’t end. Hamas and Hezbollah, with the help of Iran, would soon build up their strength again. And the cycle would start anew, to the cost of the civilians of Palestine, Lebanon, and Israel. At the risk of sounding incredibly callous, I fear that it has to get worse before it has a chance of ever getting better.
Having said that, I don’t actually see this war getting to its necessary end, because the US and international community would stop it before it ever got that far, so I hold out no hope that this cycle of violence ends anytime soon.
Hey Mikey—I respect and appreciate your respectful disagreement! This is quite a long comment, but I’m going to attempt to address it all. The bottom line is I think we may have to agree to disagree here.
To be clear, I don’t think Israel is to blame for starting this war—at least not directly—but I do think they are mostly to blame for escalating it.
The fact that Hamas uses civilians as human shields is absolutely reprehensible, and I agree with you that they are probably happy to see civilian deaths, but that is not an excuse for Israel to kill those “human shields.” They have a responsibility, under international law, to protect civilian lives; they claim to be doing this, but when you look at the sheer number of deaths, that claim stretches credulity. So the answer to your question, “how do you fight something like that” is, quite frankly, no one’s problem to solve but Israel’s. If they want to achieve a specific military effect, they need to do it within the bounds of international law and the law of armed conflict. I would actually suggest that they could have evacuated civilians into Israel proper, or to the West Bank, rather than leave kettled in in Gaza, if they wanted to conduct air raids to destroy tunnels below. But I think we all know Israel would never be willing to let Gazans in under these circumstances.
And I respectfully disagree that what Hezbollah has been doing amounts to opening up the northern front—Israel and Hezbollah exchange fire all the time, and have done so for many years. Hezbollah aren’t the ones invading Israel. Plus, it benefits Bibi politically to keep the war going…I think he sees the writing on the wall that the Gaza war will have to end eventually, and Israelis are calling for snap elections as soon as hostilities end, so better find a new distraction. Finally, the scale is different; 60,000 Israelis are displaced, and that is fucking awful, but one million people in Lebanon have been displaced because of Israeli raids, which is an order of magnitude worse. We need to place the same value on the lives of Lebanese and Palestinian civilians as we do on those of Israeli civilians.
I think it’s hyperbole to say “all the chaos in the region is underwritten by Iran”; what about Sunni extremists? What about extremist Israeli settlers, in particular? Did Iran have a role in the Arab Spring? Iran literally fought ISIS because it threatened their interests. There is plenty of chaos to go around that has little to do with Iran, and getting rid of the extremist regime in Iran wouldn’t solve it all. It’s wouldn’t be honest for us to place all the blame on Iran for what has unfolded post October 7. As I said, Iran’s actions deserve to be condemned. But Iran didn’t force Israel to create what is effectively an apartheid state that sowed the seeds for Hamas to come into existence. Hamas would exist with or without Iran. There is also no evidence that Iran directed October 7.
All that said, I suppose the real reason I’m placing the focus on Israel vice Iran here is because Israel is supposed to be a U.S. ally, and there was a time when they were upheld as a rare Middle Eastern democracy. They are about to drag us into a regional war that is not in our interests, and none of this benefits us at all. That is not how a true ally behaves.
Definitely agree with you on the point that just because Hamas use their civilians as human shields it doesn’t mean that Israel has no responsibility to protect civilian casualties, and also accept that their strategies seem to have violated that principle. It’s also worth mentioning at this point that Hamas was of course deliberately and covertly permitted to reach its current position of power in the Gaza strip by Bibi’s governments with the aim of making a two-state solution impossible. Israel, and particularly Netanyahu, has a huge amount of responsibility for making the bed it now finds itself in. However, in light of what to do now, in the context of all of those mistakes and atrocities, I don’t see how forcing a ceasefire until Hamas is totally destroyed does anything but kick the can down the road. I like your suggestion of evacuating all of the civilian population out of the strip while the IDF destroys the tunnel system, despite the inevitable difficulties in logistics and the danger of combatants smuggling themselves in with the civilian population. It certainly would have been a more humane strategy, albeit not one that Bibi himself would ever have considered I bet. A push for a different, more humane strategy like that one would be a better option over a ceasefire. Don’t think we need to restrict ourselves to ceasefire or status quo as our only two options.
I definitely would argue that we need to place the same value on Lebanese and Palestinian lives as Israelis! But, as with Gaza, I fear the idea of forcing a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah only kicks the can down the road. I think sometimes we in the West make the mistake of thinking jihadists can be reasoned with, that we can rationalise their actions with appeals to politics or socioeconomic conditions, where in actual fact they genuinely believe they are fighting a righteous cosmic war, where death in combat is the highest ideal that one can strive for. If you allow organisations like Hamas and Hezbollah to continue to exist they will never stop fighting, and the cycle of violence continues forever. That’s not to say that Israel or the US or Britain isn’t in some ways responsible for this current mess, because they are! It’s just that the way to end the cycle is with the removal of the jihadists from the equation. The fact that so many innocents are killed or injured in the process is of course an abomination. But I just can’t see any other way.
If there was a magic button we could push where everyone would put down their guns and stop fighting, then of course we would push it. But I genuinely don’t see a way this ends until Israel and/or the US deal all of these groups a fatal blow, because they will never stop. I know that will continue the bloodshed in the short term, and it puts me in the awful position of sounding like a utilitarian trying to justify some death here to prevent more deaths over there, but I don’t see any other way this ends.
Totally accept your point that my comment on Iran was an oversimplification, but if they ceased to sponsor militias all over the region, it would all get an order of magnitude easier. Without their support, Hamas would not nearly be as potent a force as they are, even if they weren’t directly involved in the planning of Oct 7th.
As for the point on allies, I can understand your position in not wanting your country to get dragged into it. As you say the truth is that the US has very little to gain from getting involved, and with the continued acceleration of solar soon the region will have no geopolitical significance at all. I suppose at this point we get into discussions about the moral responsibility of America’s role as the world’s policeman, which is a slightly different topic, and this comment is already obnoxiously long, so perhaps it’s best if I stop before getting into that!
I appreciate your point that a ceasefire only kicks the can down the road—it’s in no way a long term solution. But I do think buying time could still be worth it, if only to let Gaza rebuild civilian infrastructure. I think the issue with the strategy of attempting to completely eliminate terrorists is that in doing so, you inevitably create more terrorists. I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that many more Gazans would be happy to join Hamas today than would have before October 7 of last year because of what they’ve experienced. (I say all this, and to be clear, I shed absolutely no tears for Hamas or Hezbollah militants here—they played a stupid game and won a stupid prize. It’s the civilians who are collateral damage that I worry about.)
And oof yeah, the world policeman argument is a tough one…to be honest with you, I’m still not entirely sure what I think on that score. There are massive pros and cons on either side.
I think all non-Muslims would like to see "a world where the stated foreign policy goals of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas did not include Israel’s total destruction". Muslims in Egypt tell me that after they've taken back Jerusalem and Palestine, and restored the Islamic Caliphate that was defeated in 1918, they will take back Al-Andalus. After that, the goal is to subjugate all of the Infidel West.
I lived in Egypt for two years and never heard anything anywhere near this unhinged. But I suppose there are crazy people everywhere. (I also think there are plenty of Muslims who would like to live in a world where violent extremists aren’t trying to destroy Israel.)
If you have studied Islam in depth you would know its not at all "unhinged", especially as many Islamic groups today say openly that it is their goal, and they include it in their charter. Islam has the concept of "Dar al-Harb vs Dar al-Islam" which means House of War vs House of Islam. Islam is considered to be in a perpetual state of war with the non-Muslim world.
Quran 2:191 is also relevant: "Kill them wherever you come upon them and drive them out of the places from which they have driven you out." The idea is that all places which Islam ruled over and then lost, or from where the Muslims were driven out from, must be retaken. Devout Muslims believe it is their obligation to struggle (practice jihad) until all of these places are back under control of Islam, and the Jews and Christians are humbled, subdued, subjugated, as in Quran 9:29.
Of course, not all Muslim's interpret these verses literally, or they will say there is a different context, or use some other reason to not feel obligated by them, but a very large percentage of Muslims DO believe that following them is the only certain chance they have of going to Paradise, and not hellfire, when they die.
“Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are convinced that the End of Days has come. They believe the Shia messiah known as the ‘Twelfth Imam’ or the ‘Mahdi’ will appear soon to establish a global Islamic kingdom known as the caliphate. What’s more, they believe the way to hasten the coming of the Twelfth Imam is to annihilate Israel (which they call the ‘Little Satan’), and the United States (which they call the ‘Great Satan’).” [Joel C. Rosenberg, ‘Why Iran’s Top Leaders Believe That the End of Days Has Come‘, 7 Nov. 2011]
Exactly. Both the Sunnis and the Shias deem the destruction of Israel to be the first step to achieving their ideological Islamic goal. Israel is fighting on the front line for the rest of the non-Muslim world.
You must have talked to extremists which exist in every religion. Most muslims just want to go about their lives and live in peace.
I agree that most Muslims are barely following Islam and will happily admit in private that they are 'cultural' Muslims only. They are born into Islam. In most countries where Sharia is implemented (such as Egypt) they can never officially convert out of Islam. However, when 'extremist' Muslims quote the Quran and other Islamic texts to back up why they do what they do, you have to know that it is Islam itself that is extreme. I'm happy to be proven wrong but it seems quite clear that the overarching goal of Islam is to dominate the world. This is according to the scriptures, and according to those Muslims who follow the scriptures and the example of their prophet. Whereas, if a Christian is 'extreme', he's going to be more like a peace-loving hippie who 'turns the other cheek' and 'loves his enemies'. You couldn't say that about fundamentalist 'extreme' Muslims. I also used to defend Islam until I studied the scriptures in depth and lived where Muslims grew to trust me and opened up about what they truly believe.
Maybe along with your “studies” you could gain understanding. As it stands, you reach all the wrong conclusions because you are incapable of processing reality.
Or maybe you are just so radically leftist that stupidity has replaced every shred of reason that once dwelt within you.
Sad.
This is a proxy war with Russia… US trying to save face with very likely defeat in Ukraine and pivoting to Israel-Iran on another front. Military industrial complex at work.